Best Value Major Market Update


This November 26, 2004 Gary Scott message looks at the November 2004 Keppler Global Major Market Update.

Michael Keppler of Keppler Asset management Inc. is the king of value strategies and his top value major market strategy is used by State Street Bank and Trust (one of the worlds largest fund managers) and other fund managers to manage top value mutual funds. Funds advised by Keppler regularly rank in the top ten performers.

Every month Michael compares every major market looking at their current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return on equity compared to their average and relative vales and compares them to all other markets. Based on this research he determines which markets offer top value (buy candidates), low value (sell candidates) and which are neutral. This top value strategy since 1984 to June 2001 has averaged an annual compound return of 17.29% per annum compared to 9.15% for the benchmark MSCI World Index.

Once a month Michael provides us with this update. This is the November update.

Over the month, eleven markets advanced and seven fell.

The stock markets with the highest appreciation were Spain (up 6.0%), Belgium (up 3.4%) and Italy (up 3.3%). This year Austria remains the top performer rising with Norway still second. up 28.5% and Belgium third up 27.6%.

The worst performers for the month were Denmark (-3.4%), Norway (–2.7%) and Switzerland down 2%. The three losers for the year are Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, all down less than 1%.

(-4%), Netherlands (-2%) and the US (-0.2%).

Six top value major markets for investing (because they offer top value) have remained unchanged for four months. They are Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Norway at equal weights. Now Keppler has added France as a top value market.

Keppler’s research suggests that these markets have the highest expectation of risk adjusted returns. According to his valuation work these markets are currently 18% undervalued.

You can get ideas on shares in these markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk

The major markets which Keppler rates as low value markets with the worst expectations of risk-adjusted returns have remained for four months are Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Switzerland, and the USA. Neutrally rated markets include Australia, Austria, Spain, France, Sweden and the UK.

For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.

Friday's message looks at Keppler’s top value emerging markets.

Until then, good investing,

Gary


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