Dematerialization of Demand
Here's how to cash in as demand shifts to memories from things. Having looked on our last message at the death of demand, let's look at how we can follow this path to financial success by spotting major non material markets before they become mainstream institutions in the next social economic revolution. In the first industrial revolution the best investments (before technologies became mainstream) were in cotton mills, foundries and railways. The second wave winners were automobile manufacturing firms such as Ford. Next came communications (telephones). The fourth wave favored airplane companies (Boeing for example) and the fifth wave was computer dominated first in hardware (IBM) and then software (Microsoft). But the key has always been to invest before the technology or the companies become accepted norms. Investing in fifth wave technology or companies (such as .coms) today may be a way to maintain the value of your money but this is not the way to make really huge capital returns. It has been said this is how Warren Buffet developed his great success. He caught a wave of corporate globalization made available by the third, fourth and fifth wave technologies (phone, plane and computer) and invested in established U.S. companies as they shifted from being American companies (with markets of about 300 million people) to being global firms (with markets of billions of people). The book written by a director (Rolf Jensen) of the Copenhagen Institute entitled the "Dream Society" (published by McGraw Hill) explains all this in detail. The "Dream Society" outlines a very believable scenario and shows how by following one's heart you'll find a market of others who feel the same way. The writer is clear. These ideas are to make us use our experiences to see upcoming dimensions. However, the future is never guaranteed so what follows should be filtered by what you also feel and know. The coming Sixth Wave-The Imagination Era will be one of increasing services and less manufacturing. The nature of our upcoming economy and social structure will be as different as the Information Era was from the Industrial Era. This is because each industrial era has been highly affected by human nature, the way we react as individuals and the way society reacts as a whole. This human reactionary path was described by Abraham Maslow in his "Needs Hierarchy" which states that humans move through six steps in life if given a chance to progress. The first step in Maslow's "Needs Hierarchy" is to take care of one's physical needs, the second is to gain security. After these two levels the third step is to focus on social needs before progressing to the fourth step of acknowledgement and finally to self realization. Maslow years later stated that there is perhaps a sixth step he called idealization or the need to find a purpose beyond oneself. Let's put this into day-to-day economic terms. A person first makes sure he or she has food, clothing and shelter. If these needs are not fulfilled, not much else matters. Someone who is cold and hungry rarely thinks too much about how they look or about the social impact of their process of getting food. Enough hunger and cold will lead people to take great physical risks to be fed and warmed. But once the belly is full, the body warm and the larder filled, one begins to think about how to protect that food and how to stay warm. When secure and comfortable that the physical needs are and will remain satisfied we start to think about how we look, how we get along with others and how we fit into our society and family. We want to fit in! At least for awhile. Then we want to excel, to be acknowledged, in our society or family, as being special, being good, being more than just acceptable. When we reach a point where we have convinced others we are special and unique, we become driven to convince ourselves of this fact. We look for acknowledgement. Finally, if we prove ourselves to ourselves, we reach a sixth level of having needs that goes beyond ourselves. Our upcoming society will be dramatically affected by this hierarchy of nature and four other important facts. First the fact that parts of the world (industrialized society) have seen a six times increase in wealth in just one century. Today the average American is 40 times richer than ancient mankind, an amazing increase. Second most of the incredibly rich westerners are still not satisfied. Third most of the world hasn't enjoyed this increase in wealth. Fourth most of the world, rich and poor can see the discrepancies in wealth between the rich and poor. These facts lead to two ways of making wealth we will view in tomorrow's message. Until then, good global business and investing! Trend #1: The rate of economic change will increase.
Trend #2: The rate of private consumption will grow but mostly in
services than in products and goods.
Trend #3: There will be more automation.
Trend #4: Age, sex and wealth are becoming increasingly irrelevant.
Trend #5: There will be a shift of attitude from our brain to heart.
Trend #6: Families will turn more and more of their responsibilities
to the market place.
Trend #7: The growth in markets will be for stories, not products.
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